Before the ceremony even starts, three of the four acting races might as well be locked in. Patricia Arquette, who gives a heartfelt performance as the emotional core of “Boyhood,” essentially swept the supporting actress field all season. While it’s a deserving win, and “Boyhood” is one of the most critically acclaimed films of the year, it also essentially throws the other great – if not better – performances from supporting actresses like Emma Stone (“Birdman”), Meryl Streep (“Into the Woods”) and, although she isn’t even nominated, Carrie Coon (“Gone Girl”), under the bus and leaves them still looking for the recognition they deserve.
The “Best Actress” race is also locked in, although the winner isn’t a first-time contender. Julianne Moore has the role of a lifetime in “Still Alice,” where she plays a linguistics professor who begins showing signs of Alzheimer’s disease. While the film is still in the midst of its nationwide release, Moore’s performance won the lion’s share of major awards, including the Golden Globe, Screen Actors Guild, British Film Academy, Broadcast Film Critics and the National Board of Review. Moore’s been in the Oscar race before and many consider her to be overdue. It will be good to see her finally on stage with a statue in her hand, but it would be nice if the race wasn’t so locked up and the other great performances in contention – especially Rosamund Pike, who gives the performance of the year in “Gone Girl” – could have a genuine shot.
In the other categories, locks may as well not exist. The “Best Actor” race will be a photo finish, as veteran Michael Keaton (“Birdman”) and rising star Eddie Redmayne (“The Theory of Everything”) earned their first Oscar nominations. While Keaton came out of the gate with plenty of wins – including the Musical/Comedy Golden Globe and Broadcast Film Critics – the actors’ branch threw a wrench into the category late in the season, as Redmayne won the Golden Globe for Drama and beat Keaton at Screen Actors Guild and British Film Academy. Redmayne has everything to constitute an Oscar win – a “Best Picture” nomination for his film, an acclaimed performance in a biopic and a co-star also in the hunt (Felicity Jones in “Best Actress”) – but many see Keaton as being overdue. Although Redmayne may be the frontrunner heading into Oscar night, a swell of “Birdman” support could push Keaton across the finish line.
Finally, the top two Oscar categories are tossups, even though they can be pared down to two films, “Birdman” and “Boyhood.” The two films have gone back and forth throughout the season, claiming picture and director prizes along the way. “Boyhood” has the critical clout and plenty of major Best Picture and Director awards to its name (including the Golden Globes, the British Film Academy and Broadcast Film Critics), and “Birdman” has defeated it at the major guilds (including Best Ensemble at Screen Actors’ Guild, the Producers’ Guild and the Director’s Guild). While there’s a possibility one film could take both awards, there is an increasing likelihood there could be a picture-director split for the third year in a row, a split that could go either way.
